EP126: Nurturing Optimism: Strategies for confidence.

Optimism thrives on planning & room for error. Embrace uncertainty, face challenges with confidence, and build the flexibility to adapt. #AdvancedQualityProgramms #TheQualityGuy #optimizmandpreparation #beprepared #adaptandsucceed.

Don’t just hope for the best, be prepared for anything! Oscar Wilde said: The optimist sees the donut; the pessimist sees the hole.”

Pessimism often appears more logical and believable than optimism. Tell someone everything will be fantastic, and you may face skepticism. Warn them of danger, and you’ll have their full attention.

Conversely, discussions about average economic growth often go unnoticed, while dire predictions make headlines. Positive forecasts about market trends or a company’s potential are often met with suspicion or seen as excessive optimism.

This trend goes beyond history. Persistent pessimism often drowns out any optimistic outlook. Claiming the world is improving might label you as naive. Pessimistic narratives are easier to construct as they rely on recent events, whereas optimism requires a broader historical perspective and effort to piece together.

Why does this happen?

Despite our limited understanding of the world, we strive to create coherent narratives by filling gaps in our knowledge. Even with little information, we construct complete stories in our minds, unaware of their incompleteness due to the HINDSIGHT BIAS. This bias makes the past seem understandable, contributing to errors in various fields.

When faced with the unknown, many fail to realize their lack of understanding. Instead, they craft explanations based on their limited experiences. We create personal narratives to make sense of the world, bridging gaps in our knowledge.

However, historical interpretation requires more than imagination. The vast amount of evidence requires selective analysis. Unfortunately, many people seek information confirming their beliefs, resisting inconvenient truths. This desire to be on the “right” side fuels misinformation.

Understanding What We Don’t Know

Accepting our knowledge limitations means acknowledging much of the world operates beyond our control. This truth can be hard to accept, but arms us with a stronger perspective  as risks arise from the unknown.

We often seek predictability and control, turning to authoritative figures for reassurance. The illusion of control holds more power than the reality of uncertainty, leading us to hold to narratives where outcomes seem within our control.

Consider when playing games like chess or risk; we often focus on our actions, ignoring the Opponents’ impact. Similarly, when analyzing the past or predicting the future, we overemphasize skill and neglect chance. Focusing on what we know inflates our confidence, leading to flawed judgment.

Creating Room to Operate

Room for error isn’t just about avoiding pitfalls; it’s about buffering against bad luck. In a probabilistic world, safety margins are crucial.

Two common pitfalls hinder room for error. Firstly, the Illusion Of Certainty comforts us, despite the reality of unpredictability. Secondly, Fear Of Missing out drives us to ignore potential risks.

But consider Russian roulette; everyone knows that the odds may seem good, but the risk taken is too large. So, the reason for supporting survival comes before the success of beating the odds.

Room for error shields us from unexpected disruptions. While we can plan for most risks, the unforeseen can be the most damaging. Acknowledging life’s uncertainty allows us to make informed choices and prepare for the unexpected. A rule of thumb to calculate the margin of maneuver needed to succeed is one third of the total outcome. For example, if you play poker, instead of going all in, you can bet two thirds of your chips and you will still have enough to play if the odds had beaten you.

Designers would wish that their construction matches the mathematical calculation, but reality works differently, and that’s the reason why creating tolerances is needed. Normally 30% of the nominal value.

Maintaining Optimism: Backup give you confidence.

Optimism is vital, but acknowledging potential breakdowns is equally important. Single points of failure are risky. Critical systems have redundancies, ensuring safety in emergencies. For example, Modern airplanes are built with redundancy. With multiple backup systems, they can operate with minimal power. Such safeguards are crucial for safety.

In nurturing optimism, we must embrace preparation. Acknowledging uncertainties and building room for error allows us to face challenges with confidence. While we wish for the best, we still have room for maneuver when things are not going as we wish. And that’s the way we can be optimistic that we will succeed.

Voltaire : – Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable.” –